GPS Interference Escalates in the Baltic
Estonia's Foreign Minister blames Russia as Finnair suspends flights.
From a 29 April Finnair press release: (emphasis mine)
Finnair will suspend its daily flights to Tartu, Estonia, from April 29 to May 31, so that an alternative approach solution that doesn’t require a GPS signal can be put in place at Tartu Airport.
The approach methods currently used at Tartu Airport are based on a GPS signal. GPS interference, which is quite common in the area, affects the usability of this approach method and can therefore prevent the aircraft from approaching and landing. Last week, two Finnair flights had to divert back to Helsinki after GPS interference prevented the approach to Tartu.
Finnair suspends its flights to Tartu for one month, during which time the aim is to build approach methods at Tartu Airport that enable a safe and smooth operation of flights without a GPS signal….
"The systems on Finnair's aircraft detect GPS interference, our pilots are well aware of the issue, and the aircraft have other navigation systems that can be used when the GPS system is unserviceable," Paajanen says. "Most airports use alternative approach methods, but some airports, such as Tartu, only use methods that require a GPS signal to support them. The GPS interference in Tartu forces us to suspend flights until alternative solutions have been established."GPS interference has increased since 2022, and Finnair pilots have reported interference especially near Kaliningrad, the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. Typically, GPS interference does not affect flight routes or flight safety, as pilots are well aware of it and aircraft have alternative systems in place that are used when the GPS signal is interfered with.
Hang on a minute- since when is GPS interference a relatively common phenomenon?
Yle again, from March:
The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency (Traficom) received more than 18,000 flight safety notifications from aviators in 2023, which was more than double the average volume of such reports during 2013-2022, the agency reported on Friday.
Traficom's annual aviation security report for last year noted that the uptick in notifications was prompted by an increase in reports about GPS interference incidents.
There were around 7,500 reports about GPS disruptions last year, compared to around 1,500 in 2022. However the disturbances did not significantly affect aviation safety, according to the agency.
Finland’s Cautious Official Approach
Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation said that there was insufficient evidence to determine the source of GPS interference in 2022 that just happened to coincide with Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine:
Yle's investigative journalism unit MOT reported earlier this week that Finnish air traffic was extensively disrupted in March last year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.
For example, the seemingly deliberate jamming of GPS signals prevented aircraft from landing at Savonlinna airport, located in the east of Finland less than 100 km from the Russian border.
Finland's NBI announced on Friday that it has suspended a preliminary investigation into GPS interference affecting aircraft and airspace violations during the spring and summer of 2022 because available evidence has not led to identification of those responsible.
Some Finnish security experts have a theory:
Incidents of interference with the GPS signals of Finnish aircraft are likely part of Russia's hybrid strategy and could even be training exercises for a state of war, according to Jukka Savolainen, director of the Helsinki-based European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats1 (Hybrid CoE).
One military specialist, retired Major Marko Eklund, told MOT that there are several Russian military bases housing electronic warfare forces near Finland, and their mission is to jam communications, such as GPS signals from aircraft.
"In the areas where that interference had been detected, there is a team from across the border whose job it is to cause it," Eklund noted.
Meanwhile, in the Baltic Countries
Officials in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are less hesitant to state their theories about the mysterious GPS Jamming, as reported this week in the Financial Times:
Baltic ministers have warned that GPS jamming blamed on Russia risks causing an air disaster after the interference with navigation signals forced two Finnish flights to turn around mid-journey. The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all warned separately at the weekend of the dangers of GPS jamming across the Baltic Sea region, which has increased in recent weeks….
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, added: “We consider what is happening with GPS as part of Russia’s hostile activities, and we will definitely discuss it with our allies. “Such actions are a hybrid attack and are a threat to our people and security, and we will not tolerate them.”
The FT continued:
No country has acknowledged being behind the interference with signals in the Baltics, but officials in the region said there was little doubt that Russia was behind the jamming both from its mainland and its exclave of Kaliningrad, nestled between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. A senior official said one theory was that Russia was trying to protect Kaliningrad from potential attacks by Ukrainian drones. The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.
Something New: Now Affecting Maritime Traffic
This week’s GPS interference seems different than in the past, as it also affected maritime traffic in the Southern Baltic Sea. According to a NAVTEX issued by the Swedish Navy (which has since been rescinded):
280803 UTC APR
SWEDISH NAV WARN 081/24 SOUTHERN BALTIC. SOUTH OF OLAND. AIS AND GPS INTERFERENCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT DISTURBANCE MAY OCCUR. PSN 56-08.7N 016-35.9E
Who could it be?
The Economist’s Defense Editor produced a map yesterday, based on data provided from open-source analysts, showing the likely location of the source of the most recent interference:
OSINT analysis has placed the source of previous episodes of interference in Kaliningrad.
Concluding Thoughts:
GPS interference is relatively frequent here in Finland, but I dont often see it reported in American news sources. The Financial Times, Reuters, and The Washington Post, among others, have picked up this particular story, probably because it involves cancelled flights, but I had to search for it. Highlighting these types of events to my American friends is one of my purposes in writing these articles.
Finland tends to take a more cautious approach, waiting for the evidence- or perhaps withholding evidence to avoid showing its military capabilities. The Baltic Nations seem to have no such concerns. Perhaps we will see a change in how this particular issue is addressed after this week’s escalation.
Meanwhile, in perhaps a related story from Defense One about Russia’s Electronic Warfare capabilities:
U.S.-provided precision-guided munitions have failed in mission after mission in Ukraine, taken down by Russian electronic warfare. On Wednesday, the Pentagon revealed the latest casualty.
A new ground-launched version of an air-to-ground weapon developed for Ukraine on a rapid timeline failed to hit targets in part because of Russian electro-magnetic warfare, Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said at an event held by think tank CSIS.
I sure hope the U.S. Military, along with its allies and partners, is preparing for operations in a contested electro-magnetic spectrum.
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All the Best,
PGR
Jukka is the Director of the Vulnerabilities and Resilience Community of Interest (COI) at the Hybrid CoE, not the director of the center.