Forty Icebreakers. Big Ones.

President Trump starts his second-term discussion on acquiring more icebreakers.

On January 24th, President Trump stated during a press conference that

We’re going to order about forty Coast Guard big icebreakers. Big Ones.

-President Trump

The Reaction in Finland

The reaction here in Finland has ranged from enthusiastic to comedic. Here is an enthusiastic X post by Finland’s Minister of Economic Affairs:

Translation by Google:

Now big opportunities are opening up for Finland! Trump announces that the United States will order 40 (!) new icebreakers: https://yle.fi/a/74-20139989

This has been one of the most important projects of my time as minister. First, we managed to get the Helsinki shipyard out of Russian ownership. Then, a year ago, we made a big export promotion trip to Canada and the United States on the subject of the maritime industry. That sparked negotiations that culminated in me signing the ICE Pact icebreaker agreement on behalf of Finland in Washington last November.

Now things are taking huge steps forward. Finland is ready. Our shipyards are ready. No other country can produce as well as the things the United States needs.

…to the fearful, or rather comical- especially after an article published by Forbes suggested that the U.S. could just siphon off Finland’s know-how, build icebreakers in the U.S., and then sell them back to Finland:

If Canada-based Davie Shipbuilding commits to invest in the United States, supporting at least one new U.S. shipyard, American shipbuilders could work with Davie’s Finland-based experts to acquire the design, gain basic icebreaker fabrication skills and start a massive 40-icebreaker production run, some of which Canada, Finland and others, could then, potentially, purchase or lease.

The Forbes article- and tweet by Junger- were reported in the Finnish press by Iltalehti and Iltasanomat, and probably others (linked articles in Finnish). It caused a bit of a stir, as some seemed to assume that this was U.S. policy, rather than an idea suggested by a commentator.

Most Finns found the suggestion absurd, as Finnish companies can design a custom icebreaker to meet the customer’s specific needs, but based on proven concepts, in a very short time¹. Construction- even of one-off vessels- goes quickly in Finland (three years is about standard). And North American shipbuilding- both U.S. and Canadian- is more expensive and slower than European production. Simply put, whatever the rest of the article may say, Finns weren’t buying Craig Hooper’s “proposal.²” A more likely scenario is that Finnish companies (which may include Davie’s Helsinki Shipyard) work out a new design, based on proven concepts, and build the first few hulls in Finland while Davie finishes the purchase and upgrade of its planned U.S. facility, with future hulls to be built there.

Echoes of 2020 in President Trump’s ‘Forty’

Personally, the forty number reminded me of a speech that President Trump gave on July 10, 2020. As I wrote last year (in one of my first articles, when I had less than ten subscribers):

If you don’t remember, here is a quick reminder of this push from a July 10, 2020 speech at U.S. Southern Command. While the President’s rhetoric was ahead of the process, there was already a large effort underway to make something happen:

And we're going to be trying to get, if we can, an extra 10 icebreakers. We only have one. Russia has 40; we have one. So we will have 2, but we think we'll have 10 because we're trying to do a deal with a certain place that has a lot of icebreakers, and we're seeing if we can make a really good deal where you can have them very fast. You know about that. We're working on it, and I think we can surprise you - at a very good price, which will be nice. Much cheaper than the one we're building, and that's also nice. You could do about five of them.

About a month earlier, the President issued a Memorandum on Safeguarding U.S. National Interests in the Arctic and Antarctic Regions that publicly directed the Secretaries of multiple departments to analyze and report on the option to purchase, lease from, or new build icebreakers for U.S. Coast Guard use in an allied or partner nation. Finland was the nation of focus.

At the time, President Trump’s rhetoric was indeed ahead of the process. I had been working this particular issue for several years, and we never discussed a number as high as ten.

But it certainly got everyone talking, resulting in a very busy last few months of my tour as the U.S. Naval Attaché (or ALUSNA³, for you purists) in Helsinki (a post I held from June 2017 through the end of 2020).

Did He Actually Mean 40?

My favorite take on this comes from Gregory Purcell over on X:

Although the number 40 has a particular meaning and symbolism in the Bible beyond “too many to count⁴,” I think that similar to its use in the Bible, it signifies a rounded, relatively large number.

At any rate, it got everyone talking.

Thoughts and Comments

Perhaps President Trump was recalling the forty icebreakers he said that Russia had back in 2020 during this January 2025 press conference. He might also be referring to more than U.S. Coast Guard polar icebreakers, maybe including icebreakers for the Great Lakes, pure research vessels for the National Science Foundation, and hopefully even ice-capable warships (I know many of my U.S. Navy readers want to see another Wind-class type vessel. Me too.)

The U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker USCGC NORTHWIND (WAGB-282) in Arctic ice pack ca. 1960s. U.S. Coast Guard.

Wherever the number came from, it certainly got people talking. And some people- particularly those involved in designing or building icebreakers- started to pay close attention. This seems to signal a policy change- that something is coming that is different from the normal process that brought the U.S. the beleaguered Polar Security Cutter program.

If President Trump is serious about building more icebreakers- and it would seem that he is- the only way to do it in a timeframe that matters is to look to foreign design and construction.

And Finland- a nation that meets its NATO spending targets, has a large military force (relative to its population), and is spending more than $12 billion to buy F-35s and their associated weapons systems from the U.S., seems like a good partner for this endeavor.

All the Best,

PGR

1. From An Icebreaker Hull in a Fortnight published by Aker Arctic March 21, 2023:

Every icebreaker is designed individually to fit a certain purpose and operational area.

“Therefore, using an existing design for new tasks is not a recommended option,” says naval architect Tuomas Romu. “Especially, as an experienced designer with hundreds of references, we can develop a tailored hull in a very short time – even within two weeks – if the schedule is tight.”

2. In general, although I find Craig Hooper’s reporting on the U.S. icebreaking programs- particularly the Polar Security Cutter program- to be well sourced and very good, he often makes assumptions about European icebreakers and icebreaking capabilities that do not line up with my personal experience and observations.

3. ALUSNA: American Legation, U.S. Naval Attaché. The Navy likes to remind people of its historic service by using nomenclature such as this. Prior to WW2, most diplomatic missions were legations, not embassies.

4. The Biblical uses of the number forty are related to time (days or years).